Making an investment is inherently a prediction about the future. The future of culture and consumption. The future of markets, teams and products. This is especially the case in early stage investing but applicable to all investment decisions. Assuming this thesis to be true, the key question is, how do we gain insight into the future? Where do we look for signals to inform our decision making process? How do we determine the criteria for evaluating opportunities?
One place to look is different countries, cultures and market configurations. A quote attributed to William Gibson, “The future is already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet” succinctly makes this argument. Early glimpses of the future exist outside the circles we inhabit. What products and services have taken root in India or China? How do Brazilians think about privacy and personal information? Is the generational difference in the adoption of technology really that great or does it only apply to social platforms? In short, look in the places you don’t typically look in order to develop atypical insights.
You may be wondering what any of this has to do with what we are up to at Osparna. Our goal is to help you be clear regarding your worldview and investment thesis. Why do you think the way you do about a company, the team, the market? What will be attractive about this opportunity 5 years from now? In the case of Family Offices and Private Equity firms, given the time horizon that investments are typically held, considerations of government stability can be a central deciding factor.
”To think clearly about the future, we need to clean up the language that we use in labeling the beliefs we had in the past” – Daniel Kahneman
Osparna believes that making explicit the criteria upon which an investment decision was made reduces unwarranted bias, improves outcomes and supports long-term performance evaluation. Osparna’s platform helps you document and act on your beliefs about the future when evaluating investment opportunities, contact us to learn more.